09:48 PM CST on Tuesday, March 4, 2008
While the buzz in the housing market these days is about popping price bubbles, a new national study says that Dallas-Fort Worth has one of the most undervalued housing markets in the country.
Texas markets are also showing resilience in the face of nationwide home value drops, according to Tuesday’s report released by research firm Global Insight and financial holding company National City Corp.
Homes in Dallas are 30 percent undervalued and Fort Worth homes are almost 25 percent undervalued, researchers say, based on their estimates of where housing prices should be in North Texas.
To come up with its valuation estimates, Global Insight says it determines what home prices should be in the area, accounting for differences in population density, relative income levels, interest rates and historically observed market premiums or discounts.
The D-FW area is near the top of the list of cities with the most undervalued housing. Houston and College Station were also high on the list.
“Texas, which we have long characterized as undervalued, is now attracting significant migration at the expense of the much higher-cost metros of California and Florida,” Global Insight researchers said.
Even so, North Texas cities were among the 291 U.S. metropolitan areas that saw declines in overall home values at the end of 2007. Global Insight estimates that overall home values in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have dropped as much as 10 percent.
But that’s nothing compared with the slide in a handful of markets in California and Florida, where prices have plunged by more than 20 percent.
“Across the country, we are seeing prices going down, and that is also keeping the Texas metropolitan areas undervalued,” said Global Insight analyst Jeannine Cataldi.
The ease of building large numbers of homes in Texas is also a factor, she said.
“As demand keeps increasing there, there is enough room to build homes to meet that demand,” Ms. Cataldi said. “That’s one of the reasons we consider it undervalued.”
Even with the recent price declines, home prices in some markets in Oregon, New Jersey and California are still about 50 percent or more overvalued, Global Insight estimates.
North Texas has long stood out as one of the few large metropolitan areas not to experience dramatic home price appreciation over the last few years.
During the last five years, Dallas-area home prices have risen less than 16 percent, while the nationwide market has appreciated more than 40 percent.
“The upside for you is areas that did have all that appreciation are being hit the hardest,” Ms. Cataldi said.
| Most undervalued and overvalued U.S. home markets, based on a fourth-quarter 2007 research of median home prices. | ||||
| Market | Price | Change | ||
| MOST UNDERVALUED | ||||
| Houma, La. | $116,500 | -31.2% | ||
| Dallas | $134,500 | -30.0% | ||
| Houston | $119,300 | -29.1% | ||
| Shreveport | $101,200 | -28.6% | ||
| Lafayette | $128,800 | -26.2 % | ||
| College Station | $104,100 | -25.8% | ||
| Fort Worth | $111,700 | -24.9% | ||
| MOST OVERVALUED | ||||
| Bend, Ore. | $308,100 | 59.8% | ||
| Atlantic City | $268,600 | 55.6% | ||
| Madera, Calif. | $274,000 | 49.6% | ||
| Longview, Wash. | $213,900 | 44.2% | ||
| Bellingham, Wash. | $304,600 | 44.1% | ||
| Honolulu | $664,200 | 43.5% | ||
| Miami | $293,100 | 43.1% | ||
| SOURCE: Global Insights; National City Corp. | ||||
